We've got the guns, now for the ammunition

Rarely am I compelled to write about financial issues on this blog. For the most part I confine such mundane discussions to other sites and audiences because I know deep down inside most people don't care. Still at some point we must all stop and reflect on the events of the past few months and take stock in our selves and the assets that we plan to use further down the road.

At the moment there is a lot of Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt, or FUD as we in the tech world call it, floating around. The problem with FUD is that it's often hard to distinguish signal from noise especially when TV commentators are ranting endlessly about the end of the world. Historically speaking the only thing we have to fear is fear its self. The world did not end in 1929 and it will not end in 2008. However that doesn't mean we have to be ignorant of our next move.

Sure we've all lost money. Sure we have no safe place to put what the money have left. And obviously no one can tell you what is going to happen next. But if Econ-101 has taught us anything it's that economies experience boom and bust cycles and that our current situation is no different. Companies will fail, assets will be wiped out, but remarkably the entities who survive will become stronger and ultimately more profitable. In the next few months these companies will make themselves apparent but it will not be time to buy.

What do I plan to do? Well for starters I'll continue to sock money away in the IRA and ROTH accounts, funding them but not buying stocks. Capital preservation is the name of the game since both accounts (as well as 401(k)s) have annual contribution cut-offs and limits. The key at this point is to get the money into the account but not to "spend" it. As the economy straightens out and brighter things show up on the horizon it will be time to move those funds into the next batch of growth assets and to never look back.

I realize that the temptation these days is to pull out and to cut off contributions entirely. It's a valid fear but not a sound judgment. Also my best advice is to leave a fund or stock if it looks shaky or is a bad performer because it will most lily be punished in the coming months. Otherwise you should hang in there with anything you've already committed because the market will turn around. I would try to get as much into your IRA/401(k) as you can tolerate for 2008 and look toward doing the same in 2009 but I would target it toward ultra-conservative funds or stable value. When things start to improve you'll want to do your research and move as much cash as you can into the right growth funds and hang on.

So why am I sharing this? Do I have some sort of pump and dump strategy on the market or something? No, in fact I have no stake in what you do with your money other than to say I told you so. I base my strategy off the simple fact that most of your gains are made when valuations are very cheap and they will be once prices bottom. Think of it like this: If you find a really great deal at the store your going to stock up while you can. Squirrel away what you can and wait for the tide to turn.

When left leaning blog Huffington Post, and others, published a nasty rumor about Sarah Palin just after the announcement that she would be McCain's running mate many of us figured the story was a plant intended to discredit a large part of the knee-jerk reactionary internet blogs. In my mind the rumor was intended to spark a firestorm of blog controversy that would drag many mainstream democrat spokes people into the fray and thereby lower the debate into a dark place and the eyes of constituents. As it turns out the rumor may have been a clever slight of hand maneuver to minimize news that Palin's eldest daughter was pregnant. Regardless the stunt indicated a serious weakness with Internet blogs in regard to fact checking and may have sparked a more devious strategy, which several high profile sites fell for.

Wednesday several sites and mainstream media informed the world that Governor Palin's personal email account had been hacked. The perpetrators were able to make off with sent and received emails as well as address book entries which seemed to indicate that Palin was using the account for more than personal business. To the shock of many Huffington Post and others published detailed screen shots containing email contents and personal information about Palin's family. In doing so these sites may have broken the law, and if prosecuted could face serious repercussions.

However, legal implication aside it's clear that quasi-news sites such as Huffington Post, Americablog, Gawker have clearly taken the bait and are on course to completely discredit themselves and possibly every other political blog on the planet. While the tone and affiliation of these sites is clear the motive and reason is obscure. Are they trying to enact some sort of political change by fostering discontent or are they disingenuous enough to simply try to drive site traffic through controversy? Regardless the site publishers demonstrate a remarkable lack of ethics especially in regard to personal information and they may have taken the risk for naught. Even if this hack wasn't intentional it's unclear if there is anything damning that was garnered from the account. In the end this story may fizzle and fail to accomplish anything, except to draw more scrutiny on news blogs.

For the last several days we've experienced a gas shortage in Charlotte. Whether or not it's due to hurricane Ike or just mindless speculation is up to you. The way I see it the sooner the Colonial pipeline comes back online the better. Sunday I read that there was little damage and the company expected to have it back on line soon. Most of the refineries in Texas escaped damage also so they could be back within 1-2 weeks.

In the mean time gas will start to trickle back into the area and fuel prices will likely resume their decline shortly after. Seasonal demand is drying up, global demand is waning and we could be in for something more serious than $4 a gallon gasoline if the Lehman Brothers collapse is any indication. Guess it's no wonder my buddy over at the bankruptcy filing house is swamped and can't make it to Petit Le Mans this year. Damn you arrogant mortgage lending bastards!